Journal article

EXTINCTION TIME FOR THE WEAKER OF TWO COMPETING SIS EPIDEMICS

Fabio Lopes, Malwina Luczak

The Annals of Applied Probability | INST MATHEMATICAL STATISTICS | Published : 2020

Abstract

We consider a simple Markov model for the spread of a disease caused by two virus strains in a closed homogeneously mixing population of size N. The spread of each strain in the absence of the other one is described by the stochastic SIS logistic epidemic process, and we assume that there is perfect cross-immunity between the two strains, that is, individuals infected by one are temporarily immune to re-infections and infections by the other. For the case where one strain is strictly stronger than the other, and the stronger strain on its own is supercritical, we derive precise asymptotic results for the distribution of the time when the weaker strain disappears from the population. We furth..

View full abstract

University of Melbourne Researchers

Grants

Awarded by EPSRC Leadership Fellowship


Awarded by Conicyt/Fondecyt Proyecto Postdoctorado


Awarded by ARC Future Fellowship


Funding Acknowledgements

FL was first a postdoctoral research assistant of ML funded by EPSRC Leadership Fellowship EP/J004022/2, and was later supported partly by Conicyt/Fondecyt Proyecto Postdoctorado N.3160163.ML was supported partly by EPSRC Leadership Fellowship EP/J004022/2 and partly by ARC Future Fellowship FT170100409.