Demographic transition and factors associated with remaining in place after the 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster and related evacuation orders

Abstract

Introduction: Demographic changes as a result of evacuation in the acute phase of the 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster are not well evaluated. We estimated post-disaster demographic transitions in Minamisoma City - located 14-38 km north of the nuclear plant - in the first month of the disaster; and identified demographic factors associated with the population remaining in the affected areas. Materials and methods: We extracted data from the evacuation behavior survey administered to participants in the city between July 11, 2011 and April 30, 2013. Using mathematical models, we estimated the total population in the city after the disaster according to sex, age group, and administrative divis..