Journal article

An inverse stage-shift model to estimate the excess mortality and health economic impact of delayed access to cancer services due to the COVID-19 pandemic

Koen Degeling, Nancy N Baxter, Jon Emery, Mark A Jenkins, Fanny Franchini, Peter Gibbs, G Bruce Mann, Grant McArthur, Benjamin J Solomon, Maarten J IJzerman



AIM: Decreased cancer incidence and reported changes to clinical management indicate that the COVID-19 pandemic has delayed cancer diagnosis and treatment. This study aimed to develop and apply a flexible model to estimate the impact of delayed diagnosis and treatment on survival outcomes and healthcare costs based on a shift in the disease stage at treatment initiation. METHODS: A model was developed and made publicly available to estimate population-level health economic outcomes by extrapolating and weighing stage-specific outcomes by the distribution of stages at treatment initiation. It was applied to estimate the impact of 3- and 6-month delays based on Australian data for stage I brea..

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Funding Acknowledgements

The Melanoma Research Victoria (MRV) registry, from which data have been used in this study, was originally supported by the Victorian Government through the Victorian Cancer Agency Translational Research Program. The authors thank the following members of MRV for contributing data for this project: David Speakman, David Gyorki, Jonathan Cebon, Damien Kee, John Kelly, Mark Shackleton, Victoria Mar, and Craig Underhill.