Journal article

Estimating the risk of outbreaks of COVID-9 associated with shore leave by merchant ship crews: simulation studies for New Zealand

Nick Wilson, Tony Blakely, Michael G Baker, Martin Eichner

NEW ZEALAND MEDICAL JOURNAL | NEW ZEALAND MEDICAL ASSOC | Published : 2021

Abstract

AIM: We aimed to estimate the risk of COVID-19 outbreaks in a COVID-19-free destination country (New Zealand) associated with shore leave by merchant ship crews who were infected prior to their departure or on their ship. METHODS: We used a stochastic version of the SEIR model CovidSIM v1.1 designed specifically for COVID-19. It was populated with parameters for SARS-CoV-2 transmission, shipping characteristics and plausible control measures. RESULTS: When no control interventions were in place, we estimated that an outbreak of COVID-19 in New Zealand would occur after a median time of 23 days (assuming a global average for source country incidence of 2.66 new infections per 1,000 population..

View full abstract