Journal article

Towards clinical application of prediction models for transition to psychosis: A systematic review and external validation study in the PRONIA sample

Marlene Rosen, Linda T Betz, Frauke Schultze-Lutter, Katharine Chisholm, Theresa K Haidl, Lana Kambeitz-Ilankovic, Alessandro Bertolino, Stefan Borgwardt, Paolo Brambilla, Rebekka Lencer, Eva Meisenzahl, Stephan Ruhrmann, Raimo KR Salokangas, Rachel Upthegrove, Stephen J Wood, Nikolaos Koutsouleris, Joseph Kambeitz



A multitude of prediction models for a first psychotic episode in individuals at clinical high-risk (CHR) for psychosis have been proposed, but only rarely validated. We identified transition models based on clinical and neuropsychological data through a registered systematic literature search and evaluated their external validity in 173 CHRs from the Personalised Prognostic Tools for Early Psychosis Management (PRONIA) study. Discrimination performance was assessed with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), and compared to the prediction of clinical raters. External discrimination performance varied considerably across the 22 identified models (AUC 0.40-0.76), wi..

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Awarded by European Union

Awarded by German Research Foundation (DFG)

Funding Acknowledgements

PRONIA is a Collaboration Project funded by the European Union under the 7th Framework Programme under grant agreement n. 602152. J.K. has received funding from the German Research Foundation (DFG; grant agreement n. KA 4413/1-1). These funding sources had no role in the design and execution of this study, nor in analyses, interpretation of the data, or decision to submit results.