Journal article

Optimising predictive modelling of Ross River virus using meteorological variables

Iain S Koolhof, Simon M Firestone, Silvana Bettiol, Michael Charleston, Katherine B Gibney, Peter J Neville, Andrew Jardine, Scott Carver

PLOS NEGLECTED TROPICAL DISEASES | PUBLIC LIBRARY SCIENCE | Published : 2021

Abstract

BACKGROUND: Statistical models are regularly used in the forecasting and surveillance of infectious diseases to guide public health. Variable selection assists in determining factors associated with disease transmission, however, often overlooked in this process is the evaluation and suitability of the statistical model used in forecasting disease transmission and outbreaks. Here we aim to evaluate several modelling methods to optimise predictive modelling of Ross River virus (RRV) disease notifications and outbreaks in epidemiological important regions of Victoria and Western Australia. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We developed several statistical methods using meteorological and RRV sur..

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