Journal article

Incorporating climate change in flood estimation guidance

Conrad Wasko, Seth Westra, Rory Nathan, Harriet G Orr, Gabriele Villarini, Roberto Villalobos Herrera, Hayley J Fowler

PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY A-MATHEMATICAL PHYSICAL AND ENGINEERING SCIENCES | ROYAL SOC | Published : 2021

Abstract

Research into potential implications of climate change on flood hazard has made significant progress over the past decade, yet efforts to translate this research into practical guidance for flood estimation remain in their infancy. In this commentary, we address the question: how best can practical flood guidance be modified to incorporate the additional uncertainty due to climate change? We begin by summarizing the physical causes of changes in flooding and then discuss common methods of design flood estimation in the context of uncertainty. We find that although climate science operates across aleatory, epistemic and deep uncertainty, engineering practitioners generally only address aleato..

View full abstract

Grants

Awarded by Australian Research Council (ARC)


Awarded by INTENSE


Awarded by FUTURE-STORMS


Awarded by FUTURE-DRAINAGE


Awarded by Royal Society


Funding Acknowledgements

C.W. receives funding from the University of Melbourne McKenzie Postdoctoral Fellowship scheme and Australian Research Council (ARC) Discovery Project DP200101326. G.V. acknowledges support by the US Army Corps of Engineers' Institute for Water Resources (IWR). R.V.H. is funded by the Universidad de Costa Rica's Office of International Affairs and External Cooperation and Newcastle University's School of Engineering. R.N. and C.W. also acknowledge industry support from Hydro Tasmania, Melbourne Water, Murray-Darling Basin Authority, Queensland Department of Natural Resources Mines and Energy, Seqwater, Snowy Hydro, Sunwater, West Australian Water Corporation and WaterNSW. H.J.F. is funded by INTENSE (grant no. ERC-2013-CoG-617329), FUTURE-STORMS (NE/R01079X/1) and FUTURE-DRAINAGE (NE/S017348/1). H.J.F. also receives funding from the Wolfson Foundation and the Royal Society as a Royal SocietyWolfson Research Merit Award (WM140025) holder.