Estimating design hydrologic extremes in a warming climate: alternatives, uncertainties and the way forward

Abstract

It is now well established that our warming planet is experiencing changes in extreme storms and floods, resulting in a need to better specify hydrologic design guidelines that can be projected into the future. This paper attempts to summarize the nature of changes occurring and the impact they are having on the design flood magnitude, with a focus on the urban catchments that we will increasingly reside in as time goes on. Two lines of reasoning are used to assess and model changes in design hydrology. The first of these involves using observed storms and soil moisture conditions and projecting how these may change into the future. The second involves using climate model simulations of the ..