Climate model projections from the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) of CMIP6

C Tebaldi; K Debeire; V Eyring; E Fischer; J Fyfe; P Friedlingstein; R Knutti; J Lowe; B O'Neill; B Sanderson; D Van Vuuren; K Riahi; M Meinshausen; Z Nicholls; K Tokarska; G Hurtt; E Kriegler; G Meehl; R Moss; S Bauer; O Boucher; V Brovkin; Y Yhb; M Dix; S Gualdi; H Guo; J John; S Kharin; YH Kim; T Koshiro; L Ma; D Olivié; S Panickal; F Qiao; X Rong; N Rosenbloom; M Schupfner; R Séférian; A Sellar; T Semmler; X Shi; Z Song; C Steger; R Stouffer; N Swart; K Tachiiri; Q Tang; H Tatebe; A Voldoire; E Volodin; K Wyser; X Xin; S Yang; Y Yu; T Ziehn

Journal article

Climate model projections from the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) of CMIP6

C Tebaldi, K Debeire, V Eyring, E Fischer, J Fyfe, P Friedlingstein, R Knutti, J Lowe, B O'Neill, B Sanderson, D Van Vuuren, K Riahi, M Meinshausen, Z Nicholls, K Tokarska, G Hurtt, E Kriegler, G Meehl, R Moss, S Bauer Show all

Earth System Dynamics | COPERNICUS GESELLSCHAFT MBH | Published : 2021

DOI: 10.5194/esd-12-253-2021

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Abstract

The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) defines and coordinates the main set of future climate projections, based on concentration-driven simulations, within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6). This paper presents a range of its outcomes by synthesizing results from the participating global coupled Earth system models. We limit our scope to the analysis of strictly geophysical outcomes: Mainly global averages and spatial patterns of change for surface air temperature and precipitation. We also compare CMIP6 projections to CMIP5 results, especially for those scenarios that were designed to provide continuity across the CMIP phases, at the same time high..

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University of Melbourne Researchers

Malte Meinshausen Author

Zeb Nicholls Author

Tilo Ziehn Author

Grants

Awarded by U.S. Department of Energy

Funding Acknowledgements

Claudia Tebaldi was supported by the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) project, funded by US Department of Energy, Office of Science, Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory is operated by Battelle for the US Department of Energy under contract no. DE-AC05-76RLO1830. This work has been also supported by the European Union's Horizon 2020 Framework Programme for Research and Innovation "Coordinated Research in Earth Systems and Climate: Experiments, kNowledge, Dissemination and Outreach (CRESCENDO)" project under grant agreement no. 641816 and the EVal4CMIP project funded by the Helmholtz Society. Work at LLNL was performed under the auspices of the US Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under contract no. DEAC52-07NA27344. Aurore Voldoire and Roland Seferian were supported by H2020 CONSTRAIN under the grant agreement no. 820829.