Journal article

Long-Run Effects in Dynamic Systems: New Tools for Cross-Lagged Panel Models

Ali Shamsollahi, Michael J Zyphur, Ozlem Ozkok

Organizational Research Methods | SAGE PUBLICATIONS INC | Published : 2021


Cross-lagged panel models (CLPMs) are common, but their applications often focus on “short-run” effects among temporally proximal observations. This addresses questions about how dynamic systems may immediately respond to interventions, but fails to show how systems evolve over longer timeframes. We explore three types of “long-run” effects in dynamic systems that extend recent work on “impulse responses,” which reflect potential long-run effects of one-time interventions. Going beyond these, we first treat evaluations of system (in)stability by testing for “permanent effects,” which are important because in unstable systems even a one-time intervention may have enduring effects. Second, we ..

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University of Melbourne Researchers


Awarded by Australian Research Council's Future Fellowship scheme

Funding Acknowledgements

This research was supported by the Australian Research Council's Future Fellowship scheme (project FT140100629) and the Australian Government Research Training Program Scholarship.