Prospective evaluation of a breast-cancer risk model integrating classical risk factors and polygenic risk in 15 cohorts from six countries.
Amber N Hurson, Parichoy Pal Choudhury, Chi Gao, Anika Hüsing, Mikael Eriksson, Min Shi, Michael E Jones, D Gareth R Evans, Roger L Milne, Mia M Gaudet, Celine M Vachon, Daniel I Chasman, Douglas F Easton, Marjanka K Schmidt, Peter Kraft, Montserrat Garcia-Closas, Nilanjan Chatterjee, undefined B-CAST Risk Modelling Group
Int J Epidemiol | Published : 2021
BACKGROUND: Rigorous evaluation of the calibration and discrimination of breast-cancer risk-prediction models in prospective cohorts is critical for applications under clinical guidelines. We comprehensively evaluated an integrated model incorporating classical risk factors and a 313-variant polygenic risk score (PRS) to predict breast-cancer risk. METHODS: Fifteen prospective cohorts from six countries with 239 340 women (7646 incident breast-cancer cases) of European ancestry aged 19-75 years were included. Calibration of 5-year risk was assessed by comparing expected and observed proportions of cases overall and within risk categories. Risk stratification for women of European ancestry ag..View full abstract