Lung cancer screening: simulations of effects of imperfect detection on temporal dynamics.
Brian E Chapman, David F Yankelevitz, Claudia I Henschke, David Gur
Radiology | Published : 2005
PURPOSE: To use a mathematic model to demonstrate effects of imperfect detection on temporal dynamics of radiologic lung cancer screening. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Monte Carlo simulations of lung cancer screening programs were performed in subjects at high risk for developing cancer. The effects of detection probabilities, symptomatic presentation of tumors, tumor volume doubling time, and time between screenings were examined. Computed tomography (CT) and chest radiography models were used. RESULTS: For imperfect detection probabilities, the percentage of subjects with cancers detected with repeated screenings decreased to a steady-state value. The transition period was the period during whic..View full abstract