Journal article

The Navy's Earth System Prediction Capability: A New Global Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean-Sea Ice Prediction System Designed for Daily to Subseasonal Forecasting

N Barton, EJ Metzger, CA Reynolds, B Ruston, C Rowley, OM Smedstad, JA Ridout, A Wallcraft, S Frolov, P Hogan, MA Janiga, JF Shriver, J McLay, P Thoppil, A Huang, W Crawford, T Whitcomb, CH Bishop, L Zamudio, M Phelps

Earth and Space Science | American Geophysical Union | Published : 2021


This paper describes the new global Navy Earth System Prediction Capability (Navy-ESPC) coupled atmosphere-ocean-sea ice prediction system developed at the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) for operational forecasting for timescales of days to the subseasonal. Two configurations of the system are validated: (1) a low-resolution 16-member ensemble system and (2) a high-resolution deterministic system. The Navy-ESPC ensemble system became operational in August 2020, and this is the first time the NRL operational partner, Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center, will provide global coupled atmosphere-ocean-sea ice forecasts, with atmospheric forecasts extending past 16 days, and ocean..

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Awarded by Office of Naval Research's Earth System Prediction Capability

Funding Acknowledgements

We thank the reviewers who provide detailed comments that aided in this manuscript. We thank multiple personnel that aided in Navy-ESPC model development and discussions of results. This research was sponsored by OPNAV N2N6E and the Office of Naval Research's Earth System Prediction Capability, PE0603207N. This work would not be possible without computer time granted from Department of Defense's High Performance Computing Modernization Program. Please refer to Table 4 for the time period and the calculation of the indices (e.g., NAO, AO, MJO) for data needed to download. An account with ECMWF is needed to download these data and the availability is at no-cost for research. If you need an account, please follow the "Log In" button. Access to the Navy DSRC may be obtained through a request to the DoD HPCMP ( by following the "Obtain and Account" link at the bottom of the page, on the next page follow the "Obtaining an Account" link on the left. Once an account has been established, contact the corresponding for information to access the archived data. The Navy-ESPC code is only available with preapproval from sponsors. Collaborators outside of NRL with model access have agreements and grants with sponsors (i.e., Office of Naval Research (ONR)). If interested in working with the Navy-ESPC code, please contact corresponding and code 32 of ONR ( This is NRL publication NRLJA-7320-2020-4917 that is approved for public release, and distribution is unlimited.