Journal article

Predicting the severity of the grass pollen season and the effect of climate change in Northwest Europe

Alexander Kurganskiy, Simon Creer, Natasha de Vere, Gareth W Griffith, Nicholas J Osborne, Benedict W Wheeler, Rachel N Mclnnes, Yolanda Clewlow, Adam Barber, Georgina L Brennan, Helen M Hanlon, Matthew Hegarty, Caitlin Potter, Francis Rowney, Beverley Adams-Groom, Geoff M Petch, Catherine H Pashley, Jack Satchwell, Letty A de Weger, Karen Rasmussen Show all



Allergic rhinitis is an inflammation in the nose caused by overreaction of the immune system to allergens in the air. Managing allergic rhinitis symptoms is challenging and requires timely intervention. The following are major questions often posed by those with allergic rhinitis: How should I prepare for the forthcoming season? How will the season's severity develop over the years? No country yet provides clear guidance addressing these questions. We propose two previously unexplored approaches for forecasting the severity of the grass pollen season on the basis of statistical and mechanistic models. The results suggest annual severity is largely governed by preseasonal meteorological condi..

View full abstract

University of Melbourne Researchers


Awarded by Natural Environment Research Council

Funding Acknowledgements

This work was supported by the Natural Environment Research Council (grant numbers NE=N003756=1, NE/N002431=1, NE=N002105=1, and NE = N001710 = 1). C.H.P. is supported by the NIHR Leicester Biomedical Research Centre and the Midlands Asthma and Allergy Research Association (MAARA). The views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the NHS, the NIHR, or the Department of Health. The James Hutton Institute receives financial support from the Scottish Government Rural and Environment Science and Analytical Services (RESAS) division.