Achieving effective calibration of precipitation forecasts over a continental scale

Qichun Yang; Quan J Wang; Kirsti Hakala

Journal article

Achieving effective calibration of precipitation forecasts over a continental scale

Qichun Yang, Quan J Wang, Kirsti Hakala

Journal of Hydrology Regional Studies | ELSEVIER | Published : 2021

DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2021.100818

Abstract

Study region: Australia. Study focus: We developed the Seasonally Coherent Calibration (SCC) model to post-process precipitation forecasts from numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. The SCC model is capable of generating high-quality calibrated forecasts which are coherent in climatology, including seasonality, consistent with observations, despite only a short period of forecasts being available. In this study, we post-process deterministic precipitation forecasts from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology's Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator G2 version (ACCESS-G2) NWP model to generate calibrated ensemble forecasts across Australia. We evaluate the effectiveness, r..

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University of Melbourne Researchers

Q J Wang Author Infrastructure Engineering

Kirsti Hakala Assendelft Author Infrastructure Engineering

Related Projects (1)

Water availability and demand: better forecasts, better management

This project aims to improve Australia’s capability in the provision and use of water forecasts for managing water resources. The current wa..

Grants

Awarded by University of Melbourne

Awarded by Australian Bureau of Meteorology

Awarded by Australian Research Council Linkage Project

Funding Acknowledgements

This study has been supported by a collaborative research project (TP707466) between the University of Melbourne and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and an Australian Research Council Linkage Project (LP170100922) . Computations of this research were undertaken with the assistance of resources and services from the National Computational Infrastructure (NCI) , which is supported by the Australian Government. The authors declare that there is no conflict of interest regarding the publication of this article. Computer code for the SCC algorithm may be made available on request subject to approval by our research funder.