Conference Proceedings

Analyzing large frequency disruptions in power systems using large deviations theory

B Patch, B Zwart

2020 International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems, PMAPS 2020 - Proceedings | Published : 2020

Abstract

We propose a method for determining the most likely cause, in terms of conventional generator outages and renewable fluctuations, of power system frequency reaching a predetermined level that is deemed unacceptable to the system operator. Our parsimonious model of system frequency incorporates primary and secondary control mechanisms, and supposes that conventional outages occur according to a Poisson process and renewable fluctuations follow a diffusion process. We utilize a large deviations theory based approach that outputs the most likely cause of a large excursion of frequency from its desired level. These results yield the insight that current levels of renewable power generation do no..

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