Modeling risks from natural hazards with generalized additive models for location, scale and shape
David Pitt, Stefan Truck, Rob van den Honert, Wan Wah Wong
Journal of Environmental Management | Elsevier | Published : 2020
We investigate a new framework for estimating the frequency and severity of losses associated with catastrophic risks such as bushfires, storms and floods. We explore generalized additive models for location, scale and shape (GAMLSS) for the quantification of regional risk factors – geographical, weather and climate variables – with the aim of better quantifying the frequency and severity of catastrophic losses from natural perils. Due to the flexibility of the GAMLSS approach, we find a superior fit to empirical loss data for the applied models in comparison to generalized linear regression models typically applied in the literature. In particular the generalized beta distribution of the se..View full abstract
This work was partially supported by the Institute of Actuaries of Australia through the Grant 'Modelling Climate Impacted Risks with Generalised Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape'.