It Is Still Possible to Achieve the Paris Climate Agreement: Regional, Sectoral, and Land-Use Pathways

Abstract

It is still possible to comply with the Paris Climate Agreement to maintain a global temperature ‘well below +2.0◦ C’ above pre-industrial levels. We present two global non-overshoot pathways (+2.0◦ C and +1.5◦ C) with regional decarbonization targets for the four primary energy sectors—power, heating, transportation, and industry—in 5-year steps to 2050. We use normative scenarios to illustrate the effects of efficiency measures and renewable energy use, describe the roles of increased electrification of the final energy demand and synthetic fuels, and quantify the resulting electricity load increases for 72 sub-regions. Non-energy scenarios include a phase-out of net emissions from agricul..