Model structure uncertainty in the characterization and growth of geographic atrophy

Abstract

Purpose: To identify the most suitable model for assessing the rate of growth of total geographic atrophy (GA) by analysis of model structure uncertainty. Methods: Model structure uncertainty refers to unexplained variability arising from the choice of mathematical model and represents an example of epistemic uncertainty. In this study, we quantified this uncertainty to help identify a model most representative of GA progression. Fundus autofluorescence (FAF) images and GA progression data (i.e., total GA area estimation at each presentation) were acquired using Spectralis HRA+OCT instrumentation and RegionFinder software. Six regression models were evaluated. Models were compared using vari..