Going with the Trend: Forecasting Seasonal Climate Conditions under Climate Change

Abstract

For managing climate variability and adapting to climate change, seasonal forecasts are widely produced to inform decision-making. However, seasonal forecasts from global climate models are found to poorly reproduce temperature trends in observations. Furthermore, this problem is not addressed by existing forecast postprocessing methods that are needed to remedy biases and uncertainties in model forecasts. The inability of the forecasts to reproduce the trends severely undermines user confidence in the forecasts. In our previous work, we proposed a new statistical postprocessing model that counteracted departures in trends of model forecasts from observations. Here, we further extend this tr..