Journal article

Estimating the impact of control measures to prevent outbreaks of COVID-19 associated with air travel into a COVID-19-free country

Nick Wilson, Michael G Baker, Tony Blakely, Martin Eichner

SCIENTIFIC REPORTS | NATURE RESEARCH | Published : 2021

Abstract

We aimed to estimate the risk of COVID-19 outbreaks associated with air travel to a COVID-19-free country [New Zealand (NZ)]. A stochastic version of the SEIR model CovidSIM v1.1, designed specifically for COVID-19 was utilised. We first considered historical data for Australia before it eliminated COVID-19 (equivalent to an outbreak generating 74 new cases/day) and one flight per day to NZ with no interventions in place. This gave a median time to an outbreak of 0.2 years (95% range of simulation results: 3 days to 1.1 years) or a mean of 110 flights per outbreak. However, the combined use of a pre-flight PCR test of saliva, three subsequent PCR tests (on days 1, 3 and 12 in NZ), and variou..

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Grants

Awarded by New Zealand Health Research Council


Awarded by Ministry of Business Innovation and Employment (MBIE)


Funding Acknowledgements

Professor Wilson is supported by the New Zealand Health Research Council (16/443) and Ministry of Business Innovation and Employment (MBIE) funding of the BODE<SUP>3</SUP> Programme (UOOX1406). Professor Michael Baker is supported by a New Zealand Health Research Council grant for research on COVID-19 (20/1066).