Journal article
Anthropogenic intensification of short-duration rainfall extremes
HJ Fowler, G Lenderink, AF Prein, S Westra, RP Allan, N Ban, R Barbero, P Berg, S Blenkinsop, HX Do, S Guerreiro, JO Haerter, EJ Kendon, E Lewis, C Schaer, A Sharma, G Villarini, C Wasko, X Zhang
Nature Reviews Earth and Environment | SPRINGERNATURE | Published : 2021
Abstract
Short-duration (1–3 h) rainfall extremes can cause serious damage to societies through rapidly developing (flash) flooding and are determined by complex, multifaceted processes that are altering as Earth’s climate warms. In this Review, we examine evidence from observational, theoretical and modelling studies for the intensification of these rainfall extremes, the drivers and the impact on flash flooding. Both short-duration and long-duration (>1 day) rainfall extremes are intensifying with warming at a rate consistent with the increase in atmospheric moisture (~7% K−1), while in some regions, increases in short-duration extreme rainfall intensities are stronger than expected from moisture i..
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Awarded by National Science Foundation
Funding Acknowledgements
H.J.F., G.L., R.B., S.B., S.G. and E.L. have been supported by the European Research Council (INTENSE; grant no. ERC-2013-CoG-617329). H.J.F. and S.B. are also supported by the UK Natural Environment Research Council (FUTURE-STORMS, NE/R01079X/1). H.J.F. is funded by the Wolfson Foundation and the Royal Society through a Royal Society Wolfson Research Merit Award (grant no. WM140025). The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the US National Science Foundation. E.J.K. is supported by the Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme funded by the UK Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy and the Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs (grant no. GA01101). R.P.A. acknowledges the ERA4CS INDECIS project funded by the European Union (grant no. 690462). J.O.H. gratefully acknowledges funding from the Villum Foundation (grant no. 13168), the European Research Council under the European Union's Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation programme (grant no. 771859) and the Novo Nordisk Foundation Interdisciplinary Synergy Program (grant no. NNF19OC0057374). G.V. acknowledges funding from the US Army Corps of Engineers' Institute for Water Resources (IWR).