COVID-19-related absence among surgeons: Development of an international surgical workforce prediction model

JFF Simoes; E Li; JC Glasbey; OM Omar; AP Arnaud; R Blanco-Colino; J Burke; D Chaudhry; MF Cunha; M Elhadi; G Gallo; RR Gujjuri; HMA Kaafarani; H Lederhuber; A Minaya-Bravo; D Morton; F Pata; G Tsoulfas; ML Venn; A Bhangu; D Nepogodiev; A Isik; C Kloppers; JA Mccaul; A Mehraj; AR Mitul; D Moszkowicz; N Mugla; A Porcu; M Quante; S Di Saverio; P Singh; P Solli; A Spinelli; P Townend; GH Van Ramshorst; A Yildiz; V Zamvar; T Abbott; K Siaw-Acheampong; M Adamina; AO Ademuyiwa; A Agarwal; E Alameer; D Alderson; F Alakaloko; O Alser; KM Augestad; F Ayasra; BK Bankhead-Kendall; E Barlow; RA Benson; A Brar; KA Breen; IL Buarque; EJ Caruana; M Chaar; S Chakrabortee; D Cox; M Cukier; GH Davidson; BE Dawson; A Desai; TD Drake; JG Edwards; JP Evans; S Farik; M Fiore; JE Fitzgerald; S Ford; D Ghosh; GM Ataíde Gomes; EA Griffiths; C Halkias; EM Harrison; E Heritage; PJ Hutchinson; MD Jenkinson; CS Jones; SK Kamarajah; DS Keller; C Khatri; JM Keatley; A Kolias; I Lawani; S Lawday; S Leventoglu; MW Löffler; J Martin; HN Mashbari; D Mazingi; SC Mckay; S Metallidis; HM Mohan; R Moore; S Moug; JS Ng-Kamstra; M Niquen; F Ntirenganya; O Outani

Journal article

COVID-19-related absence among surgeons: Development of an international surgical workforce prediction model

JFF Simoes, E Li, JC Glasbey, OM Omar, AP Arnaud, R Blanco-Colino, J Burke, D Chaudhry, MF Cunha, M Elhadi, G Gallo, RR Gujjuri, HMA Kaafarani, H Lederhuber, A Minaya-Bravo, D Morton, F Pata, G Tsoulfas, ML Venn, A Bhangu Show all

Bjs Open | Published : 2021

DOI: 10.1093/bjsopen/zraa021

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Abstract

Background: During the initial COVID-19 outbreak up to 28.4 million elective operations were cancelled worldwide, in part owing to concerns that it would be unsustainable to maintain elective surgery capacity because of COVID-19-related surgeon absence. Although many hospitals are now recovering, surgical teams need strategies to prepare for future outbreaks. This study aimed to develop a framework to predict elective surgery capacity during future COVID-19 outbreaks. Methods: An international cross-sectional study determined real-world COVID-19-related absence rates among surgeons. COVID-19- related absences included sickness, self-isolation, shielding, and caring for family. To estimate el..

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