Journal article

Trends in COVID-19 prevalence and mortality: A year in review

Nick James, Max Menzies

PHYSICA D-NONLINEAR PHENOMENA | ELSEVIER | Published : 2021

Abstract

This paper introduces new methods to study the changing dynamics of COVID-19 cases and deaths among the 50 worst-affected countries throughout 2020. First, we analyse the trajectories and turning points of rolling mortality rates to understand at which times the disease was most lethal. We demonstrate five characteristic classes of mortality rate trajectories and determine structural similarity in mortality trends over time. Next, we introduce a class of virulence matrices to study the evolution of COVID-19 cases and deaths on a global scale. Finally, we introduce three-way inconsistency analysis to determine anomalous countries with respect to three attributes: countries' COVID-19 cases, de..

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University of Melbourne Researchers