Journal article

Identifying uncertainties in scenarios and models of socio-ecological systems in support of decision-making

Mark DA Rounsevell, Almut Arneth, Calum Brown, William WL Cheung, Olivier Gimenez, Ian Holman, Paul Leadley, Criscely Lujan, Stephanie Mahevas, Isabelle Marechaux, Raphael Pelissier, Peter H Verburg, Ghislain Vieilledent, Brendan A Wintle, Yunne-Jai Shin

ONE EARTH | ELSEVIER | Published : 2021

Abstract

There are many sources of uncertainty in scenarios and models of socio-ecological systems, and understanding these uncertainties is critical in supporting informed decision-making about the management of natural resources. Here, we review uncertainty across the steps needed to create socio-ecological scenarios, from narrative storylines to the representation of human and biological processes in models and the estimation of scenario and model parameters. We find that socio-ecological scenarios and models would benefit from moving away from “stylized” approaches that do not consider a wide range of direct drivers and their dependency on indirect drivers. Indeed, a greater focus on the social p..

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Grants

Awarded by LabEx CeMEB


Awarded by Biodiversa and Belmont Forum project SOMBEE (BiodivScen ERA-Net CO-FUND program, ANR)


Awarded by European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program


Awarded by FACCE Era-Gas project 3DForMod (ANR)


Awarded by French National Research Agency


Awarded by NSERC Discovery Grant


Awarded by Australian Research Council


Funding Acknowledgements

This work is part of the USBIO project funded by the LabEx CeMEB (ANR-10-LABX-04-01). M.D.A.R., A.A., and C.B. would like to acknowledge the funding of the Helmholtz Association. Y.-J.S. acknowledges funding support from the Biodiversa and Belmont Forum project SOMBEE (BiodivScen ERA-Net CO-FUND program, ANR contract no. ANR-18-EBI4-0003-01), the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under grant agreements no. 869300 (FutureMARES) and no. 817578 (TRIATLAS), and the Pew Fellows Program in Marine Conservation at The Pew Charitable Trusts. R.P. was partly funded by the FACCE Era-Gas project 3DForMod (ANR contract no. ANR-17-EGAS-0002-01). O.G. was partly funded by CNRS "Mission pour l'interdisciplinarite ' " through its "Osez l'interdisciplinarite" call and the French National Research Agency (grant ANR-16-CE02-0007). W.W.L.C. acknowledges funding support from NSERC Discovery Grant (RGPIN-2018-03864). B.A.W acknowledges funding from the Australian Research Council under ARC DP170104795. Natasha Cadenhead assisted in production of Figure 2.