Conference Proceedings

Estimating errors in concept selection

KN Otto, KL Wood

Proceedings of the ASME Design Engineering Technical Conference | Published : 1995

Abstract

Numerical concept selection methods are used throughout industry to determine which among several design alternatives should be further developed. The results, however, are rarely believed at face value. Uncertainties (or errors) in subjective choices, modeling assumptions, and measurement are fundamental causes of this disbelief. This paper describes a methodology developed to predict overall error ranges, in addition to estimating a confidence measure in the numerical evaluation results. Each numerical assignment is given an associated error tolerance, and then treated as a probability error to create a simple means to propagate the uncertainties. A degree of confidence is also derived, si..

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