Journal article

Methods for Small Area Population Forecasts: State-of-the-Art and Research Needs

Tom Wilson, Irina Grossman, Monica Alexander, Phil Rees, Jeromey Temple

Population Research and Policy Review | Springer Science and Business Media LLC | Published : 2021

Abstract

Small area population forecasts are widely used by government and business for a variety of planning, research and policy purposes, and often influence major investment decisions. Yet the toolbox of small area population forecasting methods and techniques is modest relative to that for national and large subnational regional forecasting. In this paper we assess the current state of small area population forecasting, and suggest areas for further research. The paper provides a review of the literature on small area population forecasting methods published over the period 2001-2020. The key themes covered by the review are: extrapolative and comparative methods, simplified cohort-component met..

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Grants

Awarded by Australian Government through the through the Australian Research Council


Funding Acknowledgements

This research was funded by the Australian Government through the through the Australian Research Council's Discovery Projects funding scheme (Project DP200101480).