Journal article

Evidence of shorter more extreme rainfalls and increased flood variability under climate change

Conrad Wasko, Rory Nathan, Lina Stein, Declan O'Shea



Increases in extreme rainfall intensities as a result of climate change pose a great risk due to the possibility of increases in pluvial flooding, particularly in urban and developed areas. But evidence is emerging that the observed increases in extreme rainfall are not resulting in universal increases in flooding. Indeed, on a global scale, studies consistently find more gauge stations with decreasing rather than increasing trends in the annual maxima flood magnitude. Here, we aim to improve our understanding of how rainfall and streamflow extremes are changing and why floods are not always observed to increase despite increases in rainfall extremes. To do so, we examine trends in streamflo..

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Awarded by Australian Research Council

Awarded by Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC)

Funding Acknowledgements

Conrad Wasko acknowledges support from the University of Melbourne McKenzie Postdoctoral Fellowship scheme and the Australian Research Council (DP200101326, DE210100479). Lina Stein acknowledges funding as part of the Water Informatics Science and Engineering Centre for Doctoral Training (WISE CDT) under a grant from the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC), grant number EP/L016214/1. Declan O'Shea acknowledges the support of an Australian Government Research Training Program Scholarship and the University of Melbourne Lochrie Engineering Scholarship. Data are freely available from the Global Runoff Data Centre ( and the Land Data Assimilation System ( relating to storm duration were added in response to a reviewer suggestion.