Temporal patterns for the derivation of PMPDF and PMF estimates in the GTSM region of Australia

Abstract

The Bureau of Meteorology has recently revised the Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) estimates for the Generalised Tropical Storm Method (GTSM) region of Australia. The revision process has involved the application of the more technically rigorous Generalised Southeast Australia Method (GSAM), which was previously developed for the southern part of Australia, to a much larger data set of large tropical storms. This has generally led to an increase in the total GTSM PMP depths. At times, however, an even bigger increase to the Probable Maximum Precipitation Design Flood (PMPDF) and the Probable Maximum Flood (PMF) has been caused by changes to the temporal patterns. The paper discusses the..