Journal article
Extreme Water Vapor Transport During the March 2021 Sydney Floods in the Context of Climate Projections
Kimberley J Reid, Travis A O'Brien, Andrew D King, Todd P Lane
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS | AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION | Published : 2021
DOI: 10.1029/2021GL095335
Abstract
During March 2021, large regions of Eastern Australia experienced prolonged heavy rainfall and extensive flooding. The maximum daily mean column integrated water vapor transport (IVT) over Sydney during this event was within the top 0.3% of all days since 1980, and the 10-day mean IVT was in the top 0.2%. In this study, we have examined the change in frequency of extreme IVT events over Sydney in 16 climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP245 and SSP585). Generalized Extreme Value modeling was used to further analyze the change in frequency of extreme IVT events. We found the probability of long duration high IVT events is p..
View full abstractRelated Projects (2)
Grants
Awarded by Australian Research Council (ARC)
Awarded by ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes
Awarded by U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science, Office of Biological and Environmental Research, Climate and Environmental Sciences Division, Regional & Global Model Analysis Program
Funding Acknowledgements
The work of K. J. Reid was funded by an Australian Government Research Training Program (RTP) Scholarship and the Australian Research Council (ARC; DE180100638), the work of A. D. King was funded by the ARC (DE180100638), and the work of T. P. Lane was funded by the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes (CE170100023). We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme, which, through its Working Group on Coupled Modelling, coordinated and promoted CMIP6. We thank the climate modelling groups for producing and making available their model output, the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) for archiving the data and providing access, and the multiple funding agencies who support CMIP6 and ESGF. The work of T. A. O'Brien was supported in part by the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science, Office of Biological and Environmental Research, Climate and Environmental Sciences Division, Regional & Global Model Analysis Program, under Award DE-AC02-05CH11231; in part by the Environmental Resilience Institute, funded by Indiana University's Prepared for Environmental Change Grand Challenge initiative and in part by Lilly Endowment, Inc., through its support for the Indiana University Pervasive Technology Institute. This research was undertaken with the assistance of resources from the National Computational Infrastructure (NCI Australia) supported by the Australian Government. Additionally, we thank Scott Wales for helping write the script used to obtain the CMIP6 data.