Ten-year prediction model for post-bronchodilator airflow obstruction and early detection of COPD: Development and validation in two middle-aged population-based cohorts

JL Perret; D Vicendese; K Simons; DL Jarvis; AJ Lowe; CJ Lodge; DS Bui; D Tan; JA Burgess; B Erbas; A Bickerstaffe; K Hancock; BR Thompson; GS Hamilton; R Adams; GP Benke; PS Thomas; P Frith; CF Mcdonald; T Blakely; MJ Abramson; EH Walters; C Minelli; SC Dharmage

Journal article

Ten-year prediction model for post-bronchodilator airflow obstruction and early detection of COPD: Development and validation in two middle-aged population-based cohorts

JL Perret, D Vicendese, K Simons, DL Jarvis, AJ Lowe, CJ Lodge, DS Bui, D Tan, JA Burgess, B Erbas, A Bickerstaffe, K Hancock, BR Thompson, GS Hamilton, R Adams, GP Benke, PS Thomas, P Frith, CF Mcdonald, T Blakely Show all

BMJ Open Respiratory Research | Published : 2021

DOI: 10.1136/bmjresp-2021-001138

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Abstract

Background: Classifying individuals at high chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD)-risk creates opportunities for early COPD detection and active intervention. Objective: To develop and validate a statistical model to predict 10-year probabilities of COPD defined by post-bronchodilator airflow obstruction (post-BD-AO; forced expiratory volume in 1 s/forced vital capacity<5th percentile). Setting: General Caucasian populations from Australia and Europe, 10 and 27 centres, respectively. Participants: For the development cohort, questionnaire data on respiratory symptoms, smoking, asthma, occupation and participant sex were from the Tasmanian Longitudinal Health Study (TAHS) participants ..

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University of Melbourne Researchers

Jennifer Perret Author

Don Vicendese Author

Adrian Lowe Author

Caroline Lodge Author

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Funding Acknowledgements

The TAHS was supported by the National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) of Australia, research grants 299901 and 1021275; the University of Melbourne; Clifford Craig Foundation; the Victorian, Queensland and Tasmanian Asthma Foundations; Royal Hobart Hospital; Helen MacPherson Smith Trust; GlaxoSmithKline; and John L Hopper. JP, AL and SCD are funded through the NHMRC of Australia. The ECRHS was supported by grants from the European Commission (018996) and Medical Research Council (ECRHS III no. 92091), and multiple local grants that supported study testing centres of ECRHS II and III which have been listed in the acknowledgement section. These sponsors of the study had no role in study design, data collection, data analysis, data interpretation or writing of the report. The corresponding author had full access to all the data in the study and had final responsibility for the decision to submit for publication.