Modeling total predation to avoid perverse outcomes from cat control in a data-poor island ecosystem

Abstract

Data-hungry, complex ecosystem models are often used to predict the consequences of threatened species management, including perverse outcomes. Unfortunately, this approach is impractical in the many systems that have insufficient data to parameterize ecosystem interactions or reliably calibrate or validate such models. We devised a different approach composed of a minimum realistic model that guides decisions in data- and resource-scarce systems. We applied our approach to a case study in an invaded ecosystem from Christmas Island, Australia, where there are concerns that cat (Felis catus) eradication to protect native species, including the red-tailed tropicbird (Phaethon rubricauda), coul..