Evaluation and Statistical Post-Processing of Two Precipitation Reforecast Products During Summer in the Mainland of China

Abstract

Raw weather forecasts from numerical prediction models usually suffer from systematic bias, which can be removed by statistical post-processing methods to achieve accurate and reliable ensemble forecasts. The post-processing of precipitation forecasts often requires reforecasts with long historical archives to ensure sufficient sample size. In this work, we provide an evaluation of two widely used short-range reforecast products during summer in the mainland of China, including reforecasts from the Integrated Forecasting System of the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), and reforecasts from Global Ensemble Forecast System version 12 (GEFSv12) of the National Centers f..