Using State-and-Transition Simulation Models (STSMs) to Explore Dynamic Population Responses to Drought Cycles in Freshwater Ecosystems

Abstract

Climate variability and change pose significant threats to aquatic biodiversity, particularly in areas with low and variable streamflow. Quantifying the magnitude of risk from these threats is made more difficult by the variable responses of individual species to hydrologic stress. Patterns of population decline and recovery in response to drought cycles will depend on both the resistance traits (e.g., tolerance to harsh environmental conditions) and resilience traits (e.g., fecundity, age at maturity), both of which vary considerably among species. Collectively these traits can give rise to varied, and lagged patterns of decline and recovery in response to hydrologic variability, which ulti..