An Economic Model for Estimating Trial Costs with an Application to Placebo Surgery Trials

Abstract

Background and Objective: Waste in clinical trials remains rife. We developed an economic model to predict the cost of trials based on input costs, duration, power, number of sites, recruitment eligibility and consenting rates. Methods: We parameterised the model for three proxy placebo-controlled surgical trials using data from a systematic review, a bespoke cost survey, and from the literature. We used the model to compare target and actual trial performance for (i) a trial that was completed on time but with more sites, (ii) a trial that completed after a time extension, and (iii) an incomplete trial. Results: Successful trials more accurately anticipated the true recruitment rate that th..