Tobacco endgame intervention impacts on health gains and Mā ori:non-Mā ori health inequity: A simulation study of the Aotearoa/New Zealand Tobacco Action Plan

Abstract

Background The Aotearoa/New Zealand Government is aiming to end the tobacco epidemic and markedly reduce Mā ori:non-Mā ori health inequalities by legislating: (1) denicotinisation of retail tobacco, (2) 95% reduction in retail outlets and (c) a tobacco free-generation whereby people born after 2005 are unable to legally purchase tobacco. This paper estimates future smoking prevalence, mortality inequality and health-adjusted life year (HALY) impacts of these strategies. Methods We used a Markov model to estimate future yearly smoking and vaping prevalence, linked to a proportional multistate life table model to estimate future mortality and HALYs. Results The combined package of strategies (..