Elicit

Abstract

Expert elicitation plays a critical role in risk analysis when data are unavailable and when decisions are imminent, for example when predictions about facts such as the outcomes of future events, or value judgements—preferences for an objective or choice—are required. However, these subjective judgements are often faulty due to uncertainty and the influences of overconfidence, and other cognitive and motivational biases. Techniques have been developed that obtain predictions and value judgements that anticipate and mitigate against these influences. In this chapter, we review contemporary methods used for expert elicitation in biosecurity and describe their challenges and limitations. For t..