When and Why Do Supervisors’ Evaluations Overweight Subordinates’ Performance Outcomes? Evidence from a Team Setting in the Field

Abstract

To better understand supervisors’ outcome bias, I use a regression discontinuity design that compares coaches’ performance assessments of professional football players involved in narrow wins and losses. I document that supervisors over-react to negative outcomes, sharply lowering performance ratings and tripling subordinate turnover. I find that supervisors’ evaluations that subjectively incorporate information from more incomplete objective performance measures are more prone to outcome bias than those that draw on less incomplete objective measures. I also document that supervisors’ evaluations of high-performing team members are more prone to outcome bias than supervisors’ evaluations of..