Junior doctors’ specialty choice: Stated and revealed preferences over more than a decade

Abstract

An important health policy issue in many countries is the over-specialisation of the medical workforce. Understanding junior doctors’ preferences over characteristics of alternative specialties is crucial in designing policies to improve the distribution of doctors across specialties. This paper estimates individual-level preferences over characteristics of alternative specialties from a stated-preference discrete-choice experiment (DCE) of junior doctors, then follows up the junior doctors from the DCE over the following twelve years to compare their actual labour market outcomes with their estimated preferences. Our results show that stronger preferences for higher earnings are associated ..