Quantifying plasmid movement in drug-resistant Shigella species using phylodynamic inference

Abstract

The ‘silent pandemic’ of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) represents a significant global public health threat. AMR genes in bacteria are often carried on mobile elements, such as plasmids. The horizontal movement of plasmids allows AMR genes and resistance to key therapeutics to disseminate in a population. However, the quantification of the movement of plasmids remains challenging with existing computational approaches. Here, we introduce a novel method that allows us to reconstruct and quantify the movement of plasmids in bacterial populations over time. To do so, we model chromosomal and plasmid DNA co-evolution using a joint coalescent and plasmid transfer process in a Bayesian phylogenet..