Response of Tropical Cyclone Formation and Intensification Rates to Climate Warming in Idealized Simulations

Abstract

There is currently no theory for the rate of tropical cyclone (TC) formation given a particular climate, so our understanding of the relationship between TC frequency and large-scale environmental factors is largely empirical. Here, we explore the sensitivity of TC formation and intensification rates to climate warming in a series of highly idealized cloud-permitting simulations, in which TCs form spontaneously from a base state of rest on an f-plane. The simulations reveal a nonmonotonic relationship between the time taken for a TC precursor disturbance (a “seed”) to form and the prescribed sea surface temperature (SST), with moderately long seed emergence times at both ends of the SST rang..