Projected impacts of climate change on malaria in Africa

Abstract

The implications of climate change for malaria eradication this century remain poorly resolved1,2. Many studies focus on parasite and vector ecology in isolation, neglecting the interactions between climate, malaria control and the socioeconomic environment, including disruption from extreme weather3,4. Here we integrate 25 years of African data on climate, malaria burden and control, socioeconomic factors, and extreme weather. Using a geotemporal model linked to an ensemble of climate projections under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2-4.5 (SSP 2-4.5) scenario5, we estimate the future impact of climate change on malaria burden in Africa, including both ecological and disruptive effects. Ou..