Predicting post-fire changes to streamflow using forest self-thinning parameters

Abstract

Stand-replacing wildfire in Eucalyptus forested catchments alters streamflow, however these changes can be highly variable, ranging from moderate increases through to large reductions (greater than to 50%) over decades with serious consequences for the water supplies of dependent communities.  Predicting change has proven difficult, with the most widespread models relying on time- based proxies for hydrologic changes caused by post-fire tree mortality and regrowth dynamics (e.g. Kuczera 1987).  The aim of this research is to replace these time-based proxies, which have been found to be sometimes inconsitent with more recent catchment data, with a forest-stand self-thinning model of post-fire..