Climate Change Amplifies Rainfall Sensitivity to Deforestation in the Southern Amazon

Abstract

Rainfall among the Amazon has been shown to decline sharply once forest loss exceeds a critical threshold, typically around 30%–40%. However, future interactions between climate change and deforestation on this threshold remain unclear. We model their combined effects by 2050 on rainfall and temperature. Our findings indicate that climate and land-use change lower the deforestation threshold for rainfall decline—from 50% forest loss under land-use change alone to 45% under SSP1-2.6 and 10% under SSP5-8.5 (90 × 90 km reference grids). Land-use change alone is projected to warm the region by 0.29°C, while the combined effects under SSP5-8.5 lead to 1.4°C warming. Annual rainfall is projected t..