The impacts of concurrent heatwaves and droughts on global wheat production and trade

Abstract

Concurrent climate extremes in major crop-producing regions, such as synchronised droughts or heatwaves, threaten food security by causing simultaneous harvest failures. Such multi-breadbasket failures disrupt global food trade, particularly affecting import-dependent countries. While the probability and drivers of multi-breadbasket failures have previously been studied, the effects on importing countries via agricultural trade are less clear. Here, we combine national agricultural statistics, bilateral trade information, and historical climate data to quantify how simultaneous heatwaves or droughts impact global wheat production and exports. We find that concurrent heatwaves in major wheat ..