Tracing carbon in the wind: A forward trajectory framework and regional environmental governance

Abstract

Carbon sink services are essential for climate change mitigation, yet their benefits are unevenly distributed across space. High-emission regions often differ from areas with strong ecosystem carbon uptake, creating spatial mismatches among carbon demand, ecological supply, and compensation responsibility. Existing assessments commonly focus on static supply-demand balances or distance-based source-sink relationships, giving insufficient attention to atmospheric transport pathways and cross-regional benefit attribution. To address this gap, this study develops a forward trajectory-based framework for tracing carbon sink benefits and informing fair regional compensation. The framework integra..