Trends and cycles in Australian state and territory unemployment rates

Abstract

In this paper we test for the presence of common trends and cycles in the state unemployment rates, and examine the relative dispersion of unemployment rates across the states and their relationship with the business cycle. Importantly, the results suggest that, contrary to widely held opinion, there is a case for regional unemployment policy (i.e. policy of a kind that discriminates between states and territories) in Australia. In particular: in the case of Tasmania and the two territories, regional policy is needed to counter both temporary and permanent shocks; and in the case of the mainland states - and especially mainland states with above-average unemployment rates - regional policy i..