Lifetime and five-year age-specific risks of first and subsequent osteoporotic fractures in postmenopausal women

Abstract

We examined the incidence of fragility fractures in Australian women 50 years of age and over using a Markov process with Monte Carlo simulations. The lifetime risks and the risks of sustaining first and subsequent clinically diagnosed fractures at osteoporotic sites were estimated according to age, nursing home entry and mortality rates. Hip and spine fractures were evaluated individually and fractures of humerus, forearm, wrist, ribs, pelvis, upper leg (excluding proximal femur) and tibia/fibula were considered in combination. The model predicted that 42.1% of women aged 50 years will sustain at least one fracture in their remaining lifetime, of whom half are expected to sustain multiple f..