Development of exceedance probability streamflow forecast

Abstract

This paper presents a methodology for forecasting seasonal streamflow and is an extension of a previously developed categorical streamflow forecast model that used persistence (i.e., the previous season's streamflow) and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indicators. This newly developed methodology takes persistence, an ENSO indicator, and several Pacific/Indian Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) series as the main predictor variables. Using linear discriminant analysis, the forecast is expressed as probability of exceedance of continuous streamflow amounts. An exceedance probability forecast is continuous and is useful for the design and operation of water resource systems, which require..