Mapping epistemic uncertainties and vague concepts in predictions of species distribution

Abstract

Most habitat maps are presented as if they were a certain fact, with no indication of uncertainties. In many cases, researchers faced with the task of constructing such maps are aware of problems with the modelling data and of decisions that they make within the modelling process that are likely to affect the output, but they find it difficult to quantify this information. In some cases they attempt to evaluate the modelled predictions against independent data, but the summary statistics have no spatial component and do not address errors in the predictions. It is proposed that maps of uncertainty would help in the interpretation of these summaries, and to emphasize patterns in uncertainty s..